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Atlantic Canada is situated on the east seashore of Canada, stretching from the US boundary line with Maine in the South, the entryway to the Hudson Strait in the North and bounded by Gallic talking Quebec to the West. The part has a strong cultural individuality and includes the maritime states of New Brunswick ( NB ) , Nova Scotia ( NS ) , and Prince Edward Island ( PEI ) , every bit good as the larger, more sparsely populated, state of Newfoundland and Labrador ( NL ) ( Figure 1 ) .

Canada_Atlantic_provinces_map blue.pnghttp: //www.hrblockns.com/atlmap.gif

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Figure 1: Canada and the four Atlantic Provinces ( H_ & A ; _R_Block )

The four states cover an country of about 500,000 square kilometers. The clime of the part is varied, runing from cool and humid in the maritime states of NB, NS and PEI, where the primary is influence is the Gulf Stream, to north-polar tundra in the northern ranges of NL, where the clime is driven by the cold Labrador Current, which flows from the Arctic Ocean.

1.1 Economy

In 2009 gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) of the four Atlantic states was about 74.5 billion Canadian dollars, somewhat less, per capita, than the Canadian norm. All four Atlantic States have lower than mean household income and enduring from higher unemployment rates. Family income for NL ( table 1 ) is distorted by the excavation, oil and gas extraction industry, which accounts for 24 % of the states GDP while using less than 2 % of the working population ( Table 1 ) .

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland and Labrador

Sums ( Atlantic Canada )

Canada

Area ( km2 )

71,355.12

52,917.46

5,683.91

370,494.89

500,451.38

9,984,670

Population

729,997

913,462

135,851

505,469

2,284,779

31,612,897

Population Density ( per km2

10.2

17.3

23.9

1.4

13.2

3.4

Provincial Capital

( population )

FrederictonA ( 85,688 )

Halifax ( 372,858 )

Charlottetown ( 32,174 )

St John ( 181,113 )

Urban/Rural Population

372,935/ 357,062

506,932/ 406,530

61,173/ 74,678

292,099/ 213,370

1233139/1051640

25,350,743/6,262,154

GDP ( Canadian $ , in 1000000s )

23,314

28,931

4,164

18,119

74,529

1,285,604

GDP per Capita ( Canadian $ )

31937

31671

30651

35845

32619

38125

Average household income ( per twelvemonth Canadian $ )

59,790

61,980

61,010

59,320

68,860

Unemployment Rate ( % )

9.4

10.4

11.9

13.7

7.6

Table 1: Demographic and economic statistics for the four Atlantic states. Population statistics are taken from the 2006 nose count ( Statistics_Canada, 2007, 2009b ) . GDP, pay and unemployment figures based 2009 informations ( Statistics_Canada, 2010b, 2010c, 2010d ) .

Atlantic Canada encompasses a big figure of rural communities, along with several urban Centres, the largest of which is Nova Scotia ‘s provincial capital, Halifax, followed by St John, NL, and Moncton, NB ( Table 1 ) . The economic sciences of the part are driven by the service industry, with touristry playing a peculiarly cardinal function for PEI and NS ( Table 2 ) . Single resource, rural based, industries, including agribusiness and fishing, remain critical the overall economic system ( Hutchings & A ; Reynolds, 2004 ) . Considerable disagreements exist between rural and urban communities, with rural municipalities normally marked by populations with fewer economic resources ( Statistics_Canada, 2007 ) .

Aboriginal communities, including the Innu, Inuit and Migmag, have a distinguishable set of socioeconomic conditions. Per capita net incomes and incomes for members of Aboriginal communities are statically lower than for the general population of the part, while unemployment Numberss range from 15 % to 30 % across the four Atlantic Provinces ( Statistics_Canada, 2010a ) .

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland and Labrador

Key Industries ( by GDP, Canadian $ , in 1000000s )

Servicess: finance, A health care, educational, humanistic disciplines, other ( 9998.7 )

Wholesale/retail ( 2693.3 )

Manufacturing ( 2,324.6 ) – including seafood packaging ( 99.1 )

Public disposal

( 2,183.7 )

Transportation system and repositing ( 1,140.6 )

Construction ( 1,383.4 )

Utilities ( 651.1 )

Agriculture ( 600.3 ) including fishing ( 85.0 )

Mining, oil and gas extraction ( 225.1 )

Servicess: finance, A health care, educational, humanistic disciplines, otherA ( 12976.2 )

Wholesale/retail ( 3143.3 )

Manufacturing ( 2,306.8 ) – including seafood packaging ( 181.1 )

Public disposal

( 2,935.2 )

Construction ( 1,578.0 )

Transportation system and repositing ( 1,062.3 )

Agriculture ( 707.1 ) including fishing ( 401.7 )

Mining, oil and gas extraction ( 662.6 )

Utilities ( 590.5 )

Servicess: finance, A health care, educational, humanistic disciplines, otherA ( 1253.8 )

Public Administration ( 500.6 )

Wholesale/retail ( 396.4 )

Manufacturing ( 392.9 ) – including seafood packaging ( 10.1 )

Construction ( 151.3 )

Agriculture ( 294.7 ) including fishing ( 101.4 )

Transportation system and repositing ( 91.8 )

Utilities ( 45.7 )

Mining, oil and gas extraction ( 1.4 )

Servicess: finance, A health care, educational, humanistic disciplines, otherA ( 6648.9 )

Mining, oil and gas extraction ( 4,385 )

Wholesale/retail ( 1,638 )

Public Administration ( 1409.2 )

Manufacturing ( 811.3 ) – including seafood packaging ( 235.5 )

Construction ( 767.2 )

Utilities ( 489 )

Transportation system and repositing ( 486.3 )

Agriculture ( 302.4 ) including fishing ( 201.6 )

Tourism Related Revenue ( Canadian $ , in million )

508

1,820

455.4

3.75

Table 2: Primary industry statistics, by GDP. Key industries ( Statistics_Canada, 2009a ) and touristry figures are based on 2009 informations ( Department_of_Tourism, 2010 ; Department_of_Tourism_ & A ; _Parks, 2010 ; Department_of_Tourism_Culture_and_Heritage, 2010 ; P.E.I._Statistics_Bureau, 2010 )

1.2 Primary Ecosystems

The maritime Provinces ( NB, NS and PEI ) are the warmest in the Atlantic part, with southern to mid-boreal climes ; primary flora is mixed-wood woods ( Environment_Canada, 1995 ) . The coastline is made up of shallow bays, salt fens, drops and crushed rock beaches. The country is characterised by steep offshore plumbing ( Lemmen, Warren, & A ; Lacroix, 2007 ) . PEI is an undulating field, which has been to a great extent influenced by intensive cultivation. The southern sure is dominated by good developed sand dune and beach systems ( P.E.I._Statistics_Bureau, 2010 ) .

The island of Newfoundland and the south-eastern corner of Labrador are a portion of the Boreal Shield ( Environment_Canada, 1995 ) . The island has a diverse topography, including tableland, short rivers with steep-gradients and cliffs up to 65m high. The coastline is ragged and the beaches dominated by big setts. South-eastern Labrador is unsmooth and undulating, with lifts rises quickly from the seashore to 365 m above sea degree, and includes countries of permafrost ( Lemmen, et al. , 2007 ) . The state is to a great extent forested. The bulk of Labrador is a portion of the Taiga Shield and is dominated by a more rolled topography ( Environment_Canada, 1995 ) . The coastline is influenced by the Labrador Current and has cooler summer conditions. Vegetation varies from spruce woods, to fens and bogs. The southmost tip of Labrador consists of north-polar tundra ( Environment_Canada, 1995 ) . The clime is cold and humid, with short, wet summers and long, cold winters. Coastal ice can prevail into July. Sheltered and south-facing inclines maintain spots of evergreens and deciduous bushs, while other countries are sparsely covered with moss, lichen and sedges ( Lemmen, et al. , 2007 ) .

2. Current Climate

Current clime 10 % ( 300 words )

Average winter temperatures range from -8 to -2A°C ( Environment Canada, 2005a ) . Average summer temperatures vary between 13 and 15.5 A°C. Average one-year precipitation ranges between 800 and 1500 millimeter.

Precipitation in this mid-boreal clime ranges from 900 to 2000 millimeter yearly ( Environment Canada, 1993, 2005a ) . Average temperatures in the summer vary from 8.5 to 12.5 A°C, whereas the winter scope is -20 to -1A°C. The topography causes storm systems to diverge, either along the West seashore or across the Burin and Avalon peninsulas. Spring and summer are cool. Moderating ocean influences are most apparent along the West and south seashores, which are washed by the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Gulf Stream, but are less evident along the nor’-east coastline, which is influenced by the Labrador Current and the NAO. Interior sites have warmer summers and ice chest winters than do next coastal parts.

Annual precipitation ranges from 800 millimeter in western parts to more than 1000 millimeter in countries along the seashore ( Environment Canada, 2005a ) . Average winter temperatures vary from -25 to -10A°C ; summer agencies are between 6.5 and 10A°C.

Average one-year precipitation ranges from 400 to 700 millimeters, with higher values in cardinal countries of high lift. The average winter temperature is -16.5A°C and the summer mean is 4A°C.

Described clime for the base old ages, 1960-1990. How the mean temperature and precipitation varies month to month, include treatment of the variableness of the clime indexs. Graph

“ Figure 5.1 shows the annual temperature fluctuation with average maximu m and minimal temperatures besides included. Using additive extrapolation, the maximal temperature has shown an addition of 0.80C while the minimal temperature has shown an addition of 1.2 0C with a average one-year addition of 1.0 0C over the period of record. This supports the ascertained indicant elsewhere in the Caribbean ( Singh, 1997 ) , that a greater addition in nighttime temperatures has been lending to the observed planetary heating. ”

Discuss trends/anomalies.

Expressions at difference between average winter/summer ranges over the clip period?

Expression at strength of precipitation, has it increased/decreased is more falling as rain, every bit good as overall degrees

3. Sensitivity and exposure

3.1 Tellurian Ecosystems

Tellurian ecosystems are extremely reliant upon seasonally dependent biological beat and rhythms, as such, tellurian ecosystems are among the first sectors where the emphasiss associated with rapid clime alteration can be recognised ( Catto, 2010 ) . Wildlife population kineticss are closely linked to climate. The migration and breading rhythm of several species of birds native to Atlantic Canada have been shown to be susceptible to alterations in phenological spring ( Gaston, Hipfner, & A ; Campbell, 2002 ) , which has already advanced in the part by 5 to 10 yearss over last 100 old ages ( Bonsal & A ; Prowse, 2003 ) . The migration of tellurian mammals, and therefore their impact on the wider ecosystem, can besides be affected by clime, for illustration the migration of the white-tailed cervid, a species common to the Atlantic part, is dictated by the degrees and timing of snow screen ( Sabine, et al. , 2002 ) .

3.2 Coastal Systems

Atlantic Canada is defined, both culturally and physically, by its position as a coastal part. Even at their appendages, the populations of NS and PEI are ne’er more than an hours drive from the seashore ( Lemmen, et al. , 2007 ) . Pressure for new lodging development and community piers continues to turn, despite subdivisions of the Atlantic seashores being the most badly threatened by a rise in sea degree in Canada ( Shaw, Taylor, Forbes, Solomon, & A ; Ruz, 1998 ) .

Atlantic Canada ‘s coastal ecosystems are susceptible to eroding, the sand dunes and beaches found in the maritime states specifically are extremely vulnerable. Additionally, where unconsolidated deposits or weakly amalgamate bedrock signifier coastal bluffs the coastline is susceptible to landslides ( Lemmen, et al. , 2007 ) . Forbes et.al ( 1995 ) noted an eroding rate of about 5m per twelvemonth at Chezzetcook, NS.

3.3 Marine Ecosystems

Marine resources form a cardinal socioeconomic constituent for all four Atlantic states. The possible impact of clime alteration extends beyond Marine species and includes piscaries operations, transit, wellness and safety, every bit good as the wellness of communities.

Since the prostration of collect stocks during the 1990s, Atlantic Canada ‘s piscaries have become one of the most widely studied Marine ecosystems. During the past three decennaries, societal, economic and cultural force per unit areas, combined with the troubles involved in quantifying fish stocks and unequal apprehension of engendering forms, have led to hapless determinations being made at a political degree. Despite increased consciousness and ordinance, estimations indicate that development has depleted big marauding fish communities by up to 90 % over the past 50 to 100 old ages, with diminutions widening across full communities ( Myers & A ; Worm, 2005 ) .

3.4 Water Resources

Changes in H2O resources can potentially hold far making socioeconomic effects. Tourism, diversion, fresh water piscaries, hydroelectric power coevals and agribusiness are all to a great extent reliant fresh H2O replenishment.A Freshwater resources in Alantic Canada history for less than 4 % of the entire fresh H2O in Canada, of this 90 % can be found in NL, with the bulk of the located in Labrador ( Lemmen, et al. , 2007 ) . PEI is peculiarly vulnerable and relies about wholly on groundwater.

3.5 Infrastructure

Transport contributes important sum to Atlantic Canada ‘s GDP ( Table 2 ) , with route transit the largest constituent of this sector, followed by Marine and air.

Energy is supplied through a mix of dodo fuel, atomic, hydro and wind coevals. Concerns originating from clime alteration are centred on additions in supply and demand, every bit good as the potency for impacts on substructure and hydro production. The bulk of power is supplied by overhead lines. Natural gas is supply is limited preponderantly to urban Centres.

3.6 Agribusiness

Agribusiness remains at the bosom of Atlantic Canada, yet husbandmans non merely necessitate to be able to both bring forth a harvest successfully, but be economically feasible over a sustained period. Crops require the right temperature, rainfall and long plenty to maturate. Animals require provender, grazing land for graze and shelter, all of which are dependent of clime. While busying less than 5 % of Canada ‘s entire land mass, Atlantic Canada produces 45 % of the states murphies, 39 % of its berries and grapes, and 4.3 % of its milk ( Lemmen, et al. , 2007 ) .

3.7 Community

The Many rural communities in Atlantic Canada are confronting economic force per unit areas ensuing from their dependance on a individual natural resource. Costal communities have been slow to retrieve from the prostration of the fishing industry ; this is peculiarly apparent in NL. Other industries, most notably paper milling, have moved off from the part due economic force per unit areas. Wagess are notably lower than the national norm ( Table 1 ) . Tourism continues to be a growing industry, with many households reliant on seasonal work ( Statistics_Canada, 2010c ) . Members of Aboriginal communities characteristically have higher proportions of immature citizens. Employment and income reflects lower degrees of instruction, with between and 32 % and 42 % holding no high school certification, sheepskin or grade ( Statistics_Canada, 2010a ) .

SEA ICE

For species dependent upon ice-marginal conditions for genteelness, the consequence is a supplanting of the engendering countries to the nor’-east, instead than an absence of suited conditions.

Changes in H2O temperatures, nutrient handiness, and the extent and timing of sea ice formation could impact seals and other Marine mammals ( Doniol-Valcroze et al. , 2007 ; Friedlaender et Al, 2010 ; Sjare, 2007 ; Sjare and Stenson, 2010 ; Sjare et al. , 2006 ) .

In countries where sea ice is used for winter travel, the relationship between ice extent and quality and human communities has been studied ( e.g. Laidler, 2006 ) . The development and constitution of unfastened leads ( polynya ) is of import for marine mammals, but poses a possible job for human transit.

Coastal Erosion: The dune-backed seashores of Newfoundland indicate the combined impacts of clime alteration and variableness over tellurian countries, differential sums of sea ice screen, and human force per unit area.

hypertext transfer protocol: //adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch4/images/fig9_e.jpg

“ There are now discernible groundss that increases in atmospheric concentrations of nursery gases due to anthropogenetic activities would warm the Earth ‘s atmospheric system ( IPCC, 1996 ) . ”

Forestry: “ Changes in the eco-climate may besides trip displacements in forest species. For case if heater, wetting agent and more humid conditions are projected, species that are presently abundant in Central Amazonia, say, may travel into parts like Guyana. However, climate variableness and alteration in seasonality will besides hold to be considered. For case, if droughtier conditions occur in the dry season, this may enforce terrible restraints on forest growing and may be critical in finding species response. “

Global mean clime alteration scenarios developed utilizing MAGICC 15 % ( 450 words )

Use at least three scenarios. Scenarios should stand for scope of possible hereafters. The pick at this phase does non depend on the country you have chosen.

Give a brief description of the scenarios – put graphs of the emanations used in each scenario in the appendix.

Describe the parametric quantity scenes used – can be in the signifier of a tabular array, give an account for any alterations in the parametric quantities that you make.

Make certain adequate item is given so that anybody could reproduce the consequences.

Present end product graphs originating from the MAGICC planetary norm modeling.

Regionalized clime alteration utilizing SCENGEN 15 % ( 450 words )

The end product of SCENGEN is based on the MAGICC theoretical account consequences. For each scenario chosen at the MAGICC phase you have a SCENGEN projection.

Describe ( use screenshots, tabulated informations ) the clime alterations projected for your part under each of the scenarios and parametric quantities you choose in MAGICC, for 2050 and 2100.

Display consequences averaged over all the clime theoretical accounts ( taking the two mentioned on the certification )

Discuss the variableness of the consequences amongst the theoretical accounts. This information is in the standard divergence of the values – or, to happen out about variableness between theoretical accounts you could merely take a individual theoretical account to establish the SCENGEN end product on and compare the end product for the three theoretical accounts taken entirely. Do they hold or is there a big difference.

Summarize the SCENGEN consequences utilizing tabular arraies.

Include projections of rainfall/temp in a tabular array ( when doubling/tripling CO2? )

“ For a doubling of the concentration of CO2, rainfall is expected to diminish by an norm of 0.34 millimeters dy -1 or 10 millimeters per month. The lessening appears to be higher, 17 millimeters per month and 12 millimeters per month in the First Wet Season ( FWS ) and the SDS severally. For a tripling of the concentration of CO2, the mean lessening is expected to be 0.69 mm dy-1 or 21 millimeters per month. Here once more, the FWS and the SDS will see lessenings higher than 1 mm dy-1 or 30 millimeters per month. Again, Southern Guyana is targeted for the largest lessenings in both the duplicating CO2 and trebling CO2 scenarios of CO2 concentration. However, with the tripling of CO2 concentration, Northern Guyana ( including the seashore ) is besides expected to be affected by important rainfall lessenings. ”

Appraisal of possible regional impacts under the different scenarios in survey country and possibilities for extenuation and version 20 % ( 600 words )

You have identified in the old subdivision those facets that are vulnerable to climate alteration, this is where you assess the grade to which the clime alteration projections that you have developed organize the modeling will really impact in your part. For case, you may hold found that rice production can merely take topographic point in a certain temperature and/or precipitation scope and that your projections of alteration will transcend these scopes in some scenarios and that therefore rice production is under menace which may hold a big impact on the part. Again, you could table your end product ( a La IPCC ) giving an appraisal of the likeliness ( once more like the IPCC studies do ) . Make this for all facets identified as vulnerable.

Extenuation: what can be done by your part to assist forestall clime alteration? What is their current and jutting part to carbon emanations and how can these be reduced in the part.

Adaptation: how can your part adapt to the clime alterations that you have predicted from the modeling

“ There is no consensus sing the behavior of tropical cyclones in a warmer universe. However, recent surveies indicate a possible addition of approximately 10 to 20 % in strength of tropical cyclones under enhanced CO2 conditions. Surveies besides suggest that, during ENSO events, tropical cyclones and hurricanes are likely to be more terrible ( Jones et al.,1999 ; Tonkin et al. , 1997 ; Holland, 1997 ) . However, another survey found no important alteration in hurricane frequence or geographical extent for the North Atlantic under a 2 ten CO2 Climate ( Royer et al. , 1998 ) . The concern for Guyana is the possibility of coiling sets of the hurricanes that pass to the North, impacting Guyana with more frequence than in the yesteryear. ”

Executive Summary 10 % ( 300 words )

Mentions and commendation 5 %

Bonsal, B. , & A ; Prowse, T. ( 2003 ) . Tendencies and variableness in spring and fall 0 C-isotherm day of the months over Canada. Climatic Change, 57 ( 3 ) , 341-358.

Catto, N. ( 2010 ) . A Review of Academic Literature RelatedA to Climate ChangeA Impacts and AdaptationA in Newfoundland and LabradorA St John: Memorial UniversityA of Newfoundland.

Department_of_Tourism, C. a. R. ( 2010 ) . Provincial Tourism Performance 2009. St John: Department of Tourism, Culture and Recreation.

Department_of_Tourism_ & A ; _Parks. ( 2010 ) . New Brunswick Tourism IndicatorsA Summary ReportA 2009A Fredericton: State of New Brunswick.

Department_of_Tourism_Culture_and_Heritage. ( 2010 ) . Tourism Stats. Retrieved 29th December, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.gov.ns.ca/news/details.asp? id=20101229001

Environment_Canada. ( 1995 ) . Ecological Model of Canada: A Ecozone and Ecoregion Descriptions. Retrieved twenty-seventh December, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //ecozones.ca/english/zone/index.html

Forbes, D. , Orford, J. , Carter, R. , Shaw, J. , & A ; Jennings, S. ( 1995 ) . Morphodynamic development, self-organization, and instability of coarse-clastic barriers on paraglacial seashores. Marine Geology, 126 ( 1-4 ) , 63-85.

Gaston, A. , Hipfner, J. , & A ; Campbell, D. ( 2002 ) . Heat and mosquitoes do engendering failures and grownup mortality in an Arctic nesting sea bird. Ibis, 144 ( 2 ) , 185-191.

Hutchings, J. A. , & A ; Reynolds, J. D. ( 2004 ) . Marine fish population prostrations: Consequences for recovery and extinction hazard. Bioscience, 54 ( 4 ) , 297-309.

H_ & A ; _R_Block. Atlantic Map. Retrieved 3rd January, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.hrblockns.com/atlmap.gif

Lemmen, D. S. , Warren, F. J. , & A ; Lacroix, J. ( 2007 ) . From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007. Ottawa: NaturalA ResourcesA Canada.

Myers, R. A. , & A ; Worm, B. ( 2005 ) . Extinction, endurance or recovery of big predatory fishes. Philosophic Minutess of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 360 ( 1453 ) , 13-20.

P.E.I._Statistics_Bureau. ( 2010 ) . Statistical Review 2009. Charlottetown: Department of Finance and Municipal Affairs.

Sabine, D. , Morrison, S. , Whitlaw, H. , Ballard, W. , Forbes, G. , & A ; Bowman, J. ( 2002 ) . Migration behaviour of white-tailed cervid under changing winter clime governments in New Brunswick. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 66 ( 3 ) , 718-728.

Shaw, J. , Taylor, R. B. , Forbes, D. L. , Solomon, S. , & A ; Ruz, M. H. ( 1998 ) . Sensitivity of the seashores of Canada to low-lying rise. Geological Survey of Canada, 505.

Statistics_Canada. ( 2007 ) . 2006 Community Profiles. Retrieved 29th December, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-591/index.cfm? Lang=E

Statistics_Canada. ( 2009a ) . Gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) at basic monetary values, by Industry Classification. Retrieved 29th December, 2010

Statistics_Canada. ( 2009b ) . Population urban and rural, by state and district. Retrieved thirtieth December, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo62a-eng.htm

Statistics_Canada. ( 2010a ) . Aboriginal Population Profile. Retrieved 6th January, 2011, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.recensement2006.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92-594/index.cfm? Lang=E

Statistics_Canada. ( 2010b ) . Gross domestic merchandise, expenditure-based, by state and district. Retrieved 28th December, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //cansim2.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm

Statistics_Canada. ( 2010c ) . Labour force features. Retrieved 5th January, 2011, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/lfss01a-eng.htm

Statistics_Canada. ( 2010d ) . Median household income, by state and district. Retrieved thirtieth December, 2010, from hypertext transfer protocol: //www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/famil108a-eng.htm

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